Diary

Anaylyzing the Surge -- our new way forward

wetkarma.

Posted to Diary on Thu Jan 11, 2007 at 01:47:44 PM EST. RSS.

The Financial Times has what I think is a fairly disingenuous article on the Bush administrations new strategy on Iraq.

It quotes the new US counterinsurgency manual wherein it recommends a force level of 20 soldiers to 1000 citizens. It then extrapolates a demand for an extra 250k troops (in addition to the 140k presently there) based on Iraqs population of 26m.

But is this actually what is needed? With 80% of the violence occuring in Baghdad, isn't Baghdad population the relevant population ratio? According to google Baghdad has near 6m people. Thats around 1/4 the population of Iraq which would imply the need for an extra 62,500 troops to attack 80% of the insurgent violence.

So then the question becomes -- what is the 20k troop figure we are actually sending based on?

Tags: (all tags)

This story: 16 comments (0 from subqueue)
Post a Comment
1

Re: Anaylyzing the Surge -- our new way forward

ms sue.

Thu Jan 11, 2007 at 06:22:40 PM EST

3.00 (offtopic, astute)

Why not post this as a sub?

3

^ 1

Re: Anaylyzing the Surge -- our new way forward

wetkarma.

Fri Jan 12, 2007 at 09:58:38 AM EST

none


Why not post this as a sub?

Mmm. I'm loathe to go off on a tangent but I really don't see the appeal in writing a sub when diary entries are available.

Writing a diary entry has some superior benefits in that a) what I write is immediately published b) is not going to be held to the same standards of "polish/refinement" that subs are and c) can be on any topic I'm interested in vs. what the rest of TnT is.

TnT is still small enough that people (least the people I trade comments with) read both diares and stories..so there is no problem with whether what I write is read or not.

What I would suggest to the BoD is that Diary entries be reviewed for promotion to "official" submission at their discretion.

I'm honestly not to trying to be subversive, just doing what works best for me.

Memory is a strange bell, jubilee and knell.

2

Re: Anaylyzing the Surge -- our new way forward

MayorBob.

Thu Jan 11, 2007 at 10:35:41 PM EST

none

As Jon Stewart remarked, this addition of 20,000+ troops to the forces currently in place isn't really a surge or an escalation, it's more along the lines of a tip (being 15 percent and all).  I'm not sure whether a portion of Baghdad can be pacified with an additional 20,000 troops.  And if anyone thinks that now, we're casting all political considerations aside to truly kick ass and take names later, they're only kidding themselves.  Bush is good and cooked and his answer is a half measure of simply throwing another woefully thought out and undermanned strategy into the mix.  Please hurry up January of 2009 and get here fast!

Illegitimi non carborundum.

4

^ 2

Re: Anaylyzing the Surge -- our new way forward

wetkarma.

Fri Jan 12, 2007 at 10:03:53 AM EST

none


And if anyone thinks that now, we're casting all political considerations aside to truly kick ass and take names later, they're only kidding themselves.

Hm...this is rather depressing in that I guess I'm one of those people kidding themselves. Its not so much that I believe the administration would -ever- cast aside political consideration, but for over a year now violence has been escalating in Baghdad and we have avoided putting more troops there because the casualty count was likely to increase.  

Now we have cast aside that political consideration and are applying force where its needs. In so far as the premise goes, I support the strategy -- just am skeptical at the number of troops to be deployed.

Memory is a strange bell, jubilee and knell.

6

^ 4

Zbigniew says!

1fastdog.

Fri Jan 12, 2007 at 02:21:04 PM EST

none

just am skeptical at the number of troops to be deployed.

For whatever it's worth, here's the Zigmeister's take on it:

· The commitment of 21,500 more troops is a political gimmick of limited tactical significance and of no strategic benefit. It is insufficient to win the war militarily. It will engage U.S. forces in bloody street fighting that will not resolve with finality the ongoing turmoil and the sectarian and ethnic strife, not to mention the anti-American insurgency.

At this point sending in such an insignificant number of troops amounts mostly to providing more Americans for target practice...
Iraq's gonna collapse in spectacular fashion sooner or later regardless of whether we're there or not - I'd prefer that we were not.

Somewhere in my soul, there's always Rock -n- Roll... Joe Strummer

10

^ 2

Re: Anaylyzing the Surge -- our new way forward

zyxwvutsr.

Sat Jan 13, 2007 at 12:00:10 PM EST

none

...this addition of 20,000+ troops to the forces currently in place isn't really a surge or an escalation...
That makes the Democratic leadership's performance over the past few days all the more pathetic. Their concept of leadership, it seems, is to invent a new mantra ("escalation, escalation, escalation") and invoke it whenever one of them gets in the same room with a microphone.

I heard Senator Webb on NPR the other day, commenting about the 20,000 new troops idea. (It was before Bush's speech, but after most of its contents had been leaked.) Paraphrasing his comments, he said that 20,000 troops alone do not allow a new strategy, which is what an escalation is, but may allow new tactics. It's unfortunate that there are damn few members of Congress who understand the distinction, and seemingly none at all among the party leadership who do.

11

^ 10

Sincere Flattery

uncarved block.

Sun Jan 14, 2007 at 11:12:09 PM EST

none

   Well, if Dems are opting for simplistic slogans in lieu of actual policy, it might be because they're imitating the current administration and the RNC-- the model worked pretty well up until last November, and the way the word "surge" is being massaged, marketed and spun doesn't make it appear even those elections changed much. (And whoever came up with those tiny phrases repeated on a blue background needs to be beaten, IMHO.) With "message control" (and its dark twin, "party discipline") being the new Holy Grail of American politics, I'm not entirely certain I would ever know what the Democratic leadership really thinks about this move. Heck, who knows how much arm twisting went on behind doors to get Republicans to sign on for this? I doubt it will come out until a month, maybe a year, later just how much opposition was suppressed on the Republican side.* I'd like to see free range legislators become more common inside the Beltway, but don't expect much for the next five years, at least.
   In any case, I'm not really sure how much else the opposition party can be expected to do in this situation. Their intelligence sources will, almost by definition, be worse than what the president sees-- and any secret negotiations between the heads of state involved (sometimes the most important factor in a policy decision) won't be part of any plans. Even worse, a well articulated, comprehensive plan might well be considered an opportunity for interested foreign powers to try and sway  domestic politics, either by covertly backing the mouthpiece of the new plan, or (less likely) openly negotiating with them to see about changing the course of US policy. Hyperbole, perhaps, but then again divide and conquer is one of the oldest strategies in the book.
   Yet there is widespread, possibly even majority, opposition in the US to the way the occupation is being handled, and good reason to believe that a partial withdrawal is the desired direction. What tools are at hand for an opposition party dealing with a lame duck president? Cutting funding is a very drastic step, and a bad precedent, disastrous even, to set in the middle of a conflict anyway. Impeachment? Even worse. The only way open is politics, as I see it: applying pressure to the president's party, whose members are up for reelection, in the hope that the unpopular proposal might get changed.
   You may disagree, but I believe the Democrats have (mostly) kept a sense of proportion about the whole mess. The US isn't going to be conquered as a result of Iraq, nor bankrupted, and combat losses, as I think you've noted, have been fairly light. If you think of this as a policy matter, then, rather than a matter of life or death situation~, dueling speeches on the floor or for the cameras is about as far as opposition should go. Sure, hearing dumb slogans repeated endlessly may be infuriating, but again, I blame Karl Rove for that.

   *Lincoln Chafee was safely out of power by the time this proposal was finally revealed, for example. Would someone who very publicly nixed the Bolton nomination for good be quiet if he disagreed?
   ~I'd consider counter-terrorism a far more serious issue. Note that the Democrats have been far less vocal on this matter, largely IMO because the administration is largely uninterested in the matter, and hence has nothing to oppose on the table. This is where Democrats could actually show some leadership, and whether they do or not should be closely watched over the next two years. I'm not holding my breath.

Ex ignorantia ad sapientiam; e luce ad tenebras

12

^ 11

Re: Sincere Flattery

gerrymander.

Thu Jan 18, 2007 at 10:27:34 AM EST

none

In any case, I'm not really sure how much else the opposition party can be expected to do in this situation.

Did you miss the last election results, uncarved? The Democrats are no longer the "opposition party". They are the majority party, by virtue of winning control of both Congressional houses.

14

^ 12

No, I Didn't

uncarved block.

Thu Jan 18, 2007 at 07:10:31 PM EST

none

   By meant opposition in the partisan sense. Yes, the Dems may now be the majority in the Legislative branch, but there's still a duly elected Executive representative as Commander in Chief. I was going to add tonight (thanks for the kick in the butt) that I'm also really not sure what options the Republicans have either, if their party leader refuses to let the "soft" pressure of an upcoming loss at the polls change his mind. Yes, they could join in and cut funding*, but to reiterate my first post, I believe that would set a terrible precedent-- the yes or no vote should come before military action starts (see: tough talk with Iran, 2007), and after that I agree with the cliche that politics should end at the border, for the most part. An ideal not always met, but still worth holding on to IMHO.
    What do you think is the proper range of dissent without challenging the  constitutional balance of powers? I'm trying to be moderate here-- the screeching liberals already know what the answer is (impeachment, and maybe a lynching), but I don't think I fit the bill. (Feel free to disagree.) What options are open that won't do more damage to the Republic, in the long run, than an expensive but otherwise negligible occupation of a foreign state? If we can find some common ground over what can be done, maybe it will help us discuss what could be done.

   *Which may not be that easy. Are we still technically "at war" with Iraq? The regime has fallen and been replaced, and its dictator is dead. Does this give the Congress more or less power over the funding of the troops currently deployed? I may be wrong, but AFAIK the Congress has never had much say over military deployment in places like the DMZ, though that doesn't mean they couldn't, I guess.

Ex ignorantia ad sapientiam; e luce ad tenebras

13

^ 11

Re: Sincere Flattery

zyxwvutsr.

Thu Jan 18, 2007 at 01:13:37 PM EST

none

...if Dems are opting for simplistic slogans in lieu of actual policy, it might be because they're imitating the current administration...
Or it might be because they haven't got any policy of their own, which seems likely.
In any case, I'm not really sure how much else the opposition party can be expected to do in this situation
If by "the opposition party" you mean the party that controls Congress, then, at the very least, they could call some generals up to Capital Hill for questioning before one of the committees. Questions should be formulated to try to find out if there truly is a new strategy, of which the tactic of locally massive troop increases is a part. In other words, the Democrats should determine if the 20,000 additional soldiers are being deployed out of military necessity or as political window dressing.

15

^ 2

Re: Anaylyzing the Surge -- our new way forward

charlies.

Wed Jan 24, 2007 at 12:53:01 AM EST

none

"Please hurry up January of 2009 and get here fast."

MayorBob, I detected a sigh and eye roll from you when I started using my sig line. Recently I've noticed that you seem to be coming around. Am I wrong?

January 20, 2009. Justice becomes possible.

5

Re: Anaylyzing the Surge -- our new way forward

gerrymander.

Fri Jan 12, 2007 at 12:30:11 PM EST

none

Thats around 1/4 the population of Iraq which would imply the need for an extra 62,500 troops to attack 80% of the insurgent violence.

So then the question becomes -- what is the 20k troop figure we are actually sending based on?

My guess is that your math is close to what the Bush administration is using. If so, the 20k is the remainder from what US forces already exist in Baghdad (13,500, if I recall correctly) and the new Kurdish Iraqi army units being sent into the capital. All told, that's 53,500 troops -- still 10k short of your projection, but not a negligible number.

7

^ 5

Re: Anaylyzing the Surge -- our new way forward

wetkarma.

Fri Jan 12, 2007 at 03:53:24 PM EST

none


My guess is that your math is close to what the Bush administration is using. If so, the 20k is the remainder from what US forces already exist in Baghdad (13,500, if I recall correctly) and the new Kurdish Iraqi army units being sent into the capital. All told, that's 53,500 troops -- still 10k short of your projection, but not a negligible number.

Hm I wasn't aware of the Kurdish troops. My initial take -- put me down as a supporter of this surge/new way forward. I see it as a far better strategic option (foreign policy wise) than pulling out.*

*this marks the first time since Bush's Social Security proposal that I've supported the current administration on anything.

Memory is a strange bell, jubilee and knell.

8

Re: Anaylyzing the Surge -- our new way forward

humorlesscretin.

Sat Jan 13, 2007 at 04:26:23 AM EST

none

But is this actually what is needed? With 80% of the violence occuring in Baghdad, isn't Baghdad population the relevant population ratio?

Well, that depends on how many people will just pick up and move when we get tough in Baghdad.  If half the opposition is just going to go bother our still-weak forces elsewhere, then we'd need to consider troop increases countrywide.  And keep in mind, if that many are mobile, we can't usefully chase them:  they go to Mosul and get off a strike, we drag our lumbering supply chains into motion to go to Mosul, and they zip back to hit us in Baghdad.  Repeat until disgusted.  This sort of thing is part of the joy of of 4th-gen warfare.  Our Humvees may be able to outrun their light trucks over short distances, but we have a problem when the Humvees start running out of gas, while the natives presumably know where to get a refill when they need it.  Not to mention food and shelter.

To do it "right" (and I don't particularly advocate this), we could either surge half a million troops at once or do it 1 piece at a time.  Add however many troops in Baghdad, get it locked down.  (The 20 troops per 1000 estimate worked over the population of the region to be subdued is a good guide for troop numbers.)  Then add troops elsewhere.  You may be able to shift some forces later on, once you have an area pacified, but that depends on the mobility and tactics of the opposition.  Trouble is, at the end of it all we have 300-500K troops occupying the country and we won't be able to pull very many of them out if we want to keep things locked down tight.  How long will the citizens of the US stand for an occupation on that scale?  What do we do when something comes up elsewhere?

Humorless. Cretinous. What'd you expect?

9

The Splurge, and The Morning After

airbag.

Sat Jan 13, 2007 at 11:01:29 AM EST

none

There is no insurgency. There are only different groups with guns. The U.S. has the most.

No set of political benchmarks for the U.S. administration were laid out in the President's speech, only pass or fail metrics by which to judge the Maliki administration. So if the operation of shutting down the violence between Baghdad neighborhoods works as advertised, it has not been made clear what opportunity this breathing space provides U.S. policy. It is tactics in search of a strategy. If it doesn't work, then the Bush administration will shrug its collective shoulders as the Maliki administration collapses.

This absence of a political component in the operation is where the administration blows off the ISG report that declares "national reconciliation" requires the U.S. actively intervene with a new way to get the groups under arms to come to a compromise.

In place of taking any responsibility for the actual politics inside Iraq, Bush's speech turns to matters more in line with his skill set: Threatening Syria and Iran. There are lots of speculation being penned right now about whether Iran will be attacked or not but the complete abdication from relating military affairs to a clear objective make me wonder if this part of the program is just a little something one consumes when the hangover hits: The Hair Of The Dog That Bit You. There simply is not enough beer in the fridge to get another binge going.
 

16

^ 9

Re: The Splurge, and The Morning After

charlies.

Wed Jan 24, 2007 at 01:27:22 AM EST

none

Airbag, the saddest part of this farce is the timing. Bush's speech tonight was like Robert McNamara's proclamations of light at the end of the tunnel after he knew the war in Vietnam was not winnable.

I'm not military thinker, but even I can see that the war in Iraq is lost; now is the time to implement a graceful exit. Tonight Bush is still talking, and acting, as though he thinks some chimera called "victory" is still possible. It means that the Americans on the ground will not be leaving gracefully. The lucky ones will find a seat inside the heliocopter.

One irony that I see is that in Vietnam the US chose to support a corrupt regime and moved in incrementally against a vastly superior force. That is, we entered an ongoing civil war feeling we had no choice but to support the allies we had.

In Iraq we had the opposite situation. We removed our ally, the Baathist Party, built our own corrupt regime from scratch, and through the incompetence of the American administration, managed to create our own civil war, refusing the support of available allies (Iran and Syria).

"The best and the brightest" couldn't win in Vietnam, so we tried "the worst and the dumbest" in Iraq, and they lost, too.

By the way, airbag, you might want to check your assetion that we have the most guns. I think you will find that inside Iraq, we are third after the Shia militias and the Sunni force. But hey, we've got Hummers!

January 20, 2009. Justice becomes possible.

This story: 16 comments (0 from subqueue)
Post a Comment