Business

Unemployment continues to rise

pO157.

Posted to Business on Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 02:11:38 PM EST (promoted by port1080). RSS.

The stock market took a pre-holiday pounding on thursday after news that unemployment numbers took a major step in the wrong direction and other economic indicators looked questionable.

Analysts indicated that employers are continuing to cut payrolls at a faster rate now, slicing a net 467,000 jobs in June, compared to a loss of only 322,000 in May. This increased the unemployment rate to 9.5%, a new 26 year high. Underemployment, including people working part time who wanted full time and those who had given up looking for work was at 16.5%. 4.4 million of these people have been out of work for over 6 months.

This is bad news for the President, not only because his future rests on a swift economic recovery, but also because his projected $1.75 trillion in deficit spending will likely get worse if the economic situation continues to deteriorate. 4 out of 4 economists sampled by CNN agreed unemployment will only continue to get worse and all but one stated it would hit double digits by the end of the year. Other economic indicators suggested we may be heading towards a Carter-esuqe malaise.

Tags: edited by Port1080, written by pO157, unemployment, politics (all tags)

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1

Re: Unemployment continues to rise

Steve Urkel.

Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 03:02:00 PM EST

none

In response to the downturn there should have been, at the very least, a lowering of payroll and corporate taxes. Instead a bogus "stimulus" bill was passed, along with minor policies harmful to employment, combined with promises to pass sweeping measures that are major disincentives to hiring.

2

Re: Unemployment continues to rise

gerrymander.

Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 03:15:54 PM EST

none

I was wondering about the minimal 0.1% rise in the unemployment rate as compared to the higher jumps for roughly equivalent numbers prior. Fortunately, someone had already done that work for me: 150,000 people dropped out of the job market, and another 200,000 were hired by the government. Without those, US unemployment would be up to 9.7%.

For the record, Obama's selling point for the stimulus was that with it we'd see 8.0% unemployment, but without it the rate would be 9.0%. So, not only are the current administration's economic policies failing, they are harming the economy more than their own projections of a "do nothing" policy. Hope and change!

3

^ 2

Re: Unemployment continues to rise

pO157.

Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 03:36:56 PM EST

none

The problem is that the "Stimulus" package was supposed to flush the markets with cash immediately, much like you want to use a high pressure hose to clear a blockage in a sewage system to return things to normal. This was not done. Instead we have a slow dribbling of borrowed cash into the market. It's clear the Feds aren't acting with the alacrity they said this situation demanded. If the economy resolves itself on its own (which it normally would if left to its own devices) it'll probably be done before the stimulus money all gets out and we'll still be spending our borrowed Chinese dollars. If it doesn't, we're setting up a situation where we will be trillions in debt to our new Asian overlords through ineffective spending.

Meanwhile, hundreds of billions have been rapidly dispensed to the people who caused this mess: the bankers.

Government involvement in the markets is fatuous.

Bottles and cans just clap your hands just clap your hands

5

^ 3

Re: Unemployment continues to rise

joshv.

Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 03:44:39 PM EST

none

If they'd wanted to really flush, they could have just declared 2008 a tax free year and refunded most withholding (blah blah, exempt rich fat cats, whatever).  Oh yeah - but that's right.  People are stupid.  They would have used the money to pay off debts and would have put it in banks, all very bad for the economy.

4

Re: Unemployment continues to rise

joshv.

Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 03:38:33 PM EST

none

Wow, as of right now the poll sits at 90%/10% - guess we are a pretty representative sample.

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Re: Unemployment continues to rise

HidingFromGoro.

Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 02:05:28 PM EST

5.00 (fired, unemployed)

No I just forgot to vote.

7

Case for a second stimulus

port1080.

Mon Jul 06, 2009 at 12:36:18 PM EST

none

I wonder how Machiavellian Obama is? Back when the first stimulus was passed, quite a few commentators indicated that they didn't think it was enough. They also indicated that they thought Obama's predicted unemployment numbers were low. Now, we're finding out that indeed Obama's numbers were low, and indeed the stimulus was too little. Now, I don't think Obama could have passed a larger stimulus when he did - the political will was not there. Now, however, it might be. I wonder if the original stimulus effort was carried out with the idea that down the road another bill would be required? In favor of this you have the argument that Obama was willfully miss-stating unemployment projections and so on to make it appear that the first bill was all that would be required (so he could come back later and make the case that the situation had fundamentally changed from before, thus requiring a new effort). Against, I think the biggest argument is that Obama seems very determined to get his healthcare initiative passed, and the odds of both another stimulus bill, and another healthcare package getting passed at the same time are fairly slim.

Ce n'est pas une pipe. C'est une signature.

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Re: Case for a second stimulus

port1080.

Mon Jul 06, 2009 at 12:50:44 PM EST

none

...and just after I wrote that, here's a little piece I found on The New Republic discussing the politics of a second stimulus bill.

Ce n'est pas une pipe. C'est une signature.

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Re: Case for a second stimulus

pO157.

Mon Jul 06, 2009 at 12:55:55 PM EST

none

Agreed. It is one or the other. While I disagree strenuously with both I must say that I think his healthcare bill has a higher chance. Average people probably see more in it for them than they do in another wasteful stimulus package, especially given the stories of questionable spending practices and controls in the stimuli and bailouts thus far.

Bottles and cans just clap your hands just clap your hands

10

the governments job

shane.

Mon Jul 06, 2009 at 10:56:11 PM EST

none

The governments job at a time of economic crisis is to ensure that the people who get laid off or are underemployed can get unemployment insurance payments.  The economy may just be permanently fucked as people are starting to realize that buying plastic trinkets doesn't actually make them happy.  In addition the doubling of the cost of foods, especially wheat and rice, and oil is causing people to re-evaluate their purchases and ideals.  Last year was an amazing year to be in the seed business, sales are way up.  For the first time in a couple decades there were more farmers than the year before.  The times of permanent economic growth are over, the best we can hope for now is for growth to flatline.

So repeal the waste of money stimulus package and put that money directly in the hands of the unemployed, undermployed and unemployable.  

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